OK, so here's my quick, instant reaction to Bush's speech and Kaine's response... well, instant for me, since I missed the broadcast and had to stream it at a coffee shop. Hear that noise that sounds suspiciously like a cappuccino machine? That's Ernie succumbing to yuppie creep, $2.55 at a time.
Overall, while it was a good speech for the President, I don't think policy-wise it changed the playing field much at all. He emphasized his traditional strengths with voters, like national security and tax cuts, and made a few unsuccessful forays into weaker territory. I was especially surprised he raised Social Security from the dead (no pun intended), given that even though he's in the right to incite debate on reform, the Democrats have public opinion on their side and wisely stood... er, sat their ground tonight. Given all the political capital he's going to need to plausibly threaten another war in the Middle East, I really can't see him grabbing for a third rail anytime soon.
If there was a true double-take shocker moment, though, it came with energy policy, for two entirely different reasons. On the one hand, for the first time the President grasped, or let on that he grasped, just how pivotal a role oil plays in national security, the economy, and the environment. That paragraph could have come, word-for-word, from an Al Gore speech. On the other hand, how much credibility could a former oil tycoon and governor of an oil state possibly have to lower America's dependence on oil? George Bush telling me I'm addicted to gasoline is a bit like my friendly barista telling me I'm addicted to coffee (woe be to the day when Peet's starts offering 91-octane iced chai lattes). I believe he's sincere in his desire to tackle immigration and reform social security, as futile as those endeavors may be right now. But make the US more energy efficient? Forget coffee, I need a drink after that one.
As for Governor Kaine's response, as a platform it was decent. As a springboard for Mark Warner's now-inevitable presidential run, it was indispensible. But as a response? It missed the mark. On the plus side, his speech managed to dress the Democrats' role as the opposition in positive, pro-active language. His far-too-brief remarks on Iraq were particularly, and surprisingly, strong. But he missed several of Bush's major points, including energy. Kaine refused to go on the offensive on lobbying, other than vague references to "good, clean government" (what are we, in Canada now?). Most importantly, I don't think Kaine managed to tie the Democrats' policy achievements in Virginia (under Warner... hint hint nudge nudge) with any sort of broad political philosophy driving the national party. OK, so Republicans and Democrats in the Commonwealth worked together... so what? Partisanship is almost always less pronounced at the local level. Kaine's remarks don't offer much in the way of new insight about the DNC.
So Bush owned the night... but the real test will come in a few weeks, when his approval bump dies down and he actually has make a move on Social Security and energy. I, for one, don't think anything will come of it. I'd wager a frappaccino on that.
