Yesterday, the news broke that a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) reported that increasing Islamic radicalism and terrorism is directly related to the war in Iraq (read the reports from the New York Times here and here). In today’s Times article, Arlen Specter is reported as commenting that “that’s a problem that nobody seems to have an answer to.” Confronted with this new evidence, the United States still has few options in Iraq and none “good.”
On one hand, the U.S. can pull all American personnel out of Iraq. If the U.S. were to withdraw from Iraq tomorrow, the country would be left in chaos. Iraq will likely spiral into a civil war, and another (or several, depending on the outcome of a civil war) despotic regime will likely gain power over the country. This could radicalize much of the moderate majority against the U.S. for removing the original Ba’ath regime in the beginning. Islamic fundamentalists could then use Iraq as an example of the U.S. destroying an Islamic society and leaving it without assistance. In sum, if the U.S. were to remove all American personnel from Iraq today, Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism directed towards the U.S. will likely increase in the long term.
On the other hand, the U.S. can “stay the course” in Iraq. In the long term, though, Americans can count on more of the same with this tactic. Americans are killed in Iraq on a daily basis, and the American presence in Iraq angers many Muslims around the world. This anger is resulting in the increasing Islamic extremism and terrorism, as the NIE reported.
American foreign policymakers need to find the middle ground between these two options. A realignment of foreign policy values may be necessary to find this middle ground. First, policymakers need to determine a gradual Iraq withdrawal plan that is amenable to both the U.S. and Iraq. Second, the U.S. needs to evaluate and reinvest in its public diplomacy program. Typically, a person who has had contact with someone from an “out” group is much less likely to perpetrate violence against that group than someone who has not had exposure to the “out” group. Public diplomacy can bring Americans and American culture to people who might otherwise never have exposure to an American. Finally, the U.S. should invest in more generous aid programs. Aid programs are a way to show that we mean what we say. The U.S. has to prove to Muslims around the world that it does not want to establish an empire and that Americans do see them as our fellow and equal human beings. These last two measures will be costly, but this might be the price of addressing the causes of hatred and violence directed towards the U.S.
