Last week, CNN aired ‘Czar Putin”, a report on Vladimir Vladimirovich’s accumulation of power since his ascension to the Kremlin in 2000. Coinciding with the Russian Parliamentary Elections held over the weekend, the program gave attention to something many engaged in that region have known for a long time – Russia’s window of opportunity for a healthy democracy is closing fast, if not already shut tight.
While Putin has methodically morphed fledgling democratic institutions into something much closer to dictatorship, the scarier aspect of Russia is the popular approval of his Presidency, fueled by resurgent Russian nationalism. A recent poll from the Levada center in Moscow found that 67% of the population favored a third term for Putin, were it not against the Russian constitution (it should be mentioned here that on Sunday’s widely criticized Parliamentary election Putin’s United Russia party won enough seats in Parliament to amend the Constitution). While CNN might dub Putin as Russia’s newest Czar, the domestic political movement Putin has started, often referred to as “Putinism”, resembles post-WWI Germany more than pre-revolution Russia. Putin’s Russia is dwelling on its “fall from greatness” more and more, fostering a sense of resentment that it is not more respected in the world and a longing to reassert its authority over its neighbors.
Putin’s rise can be attributed to serendipitous economic growth and a good old fashioned mix of jingoism and xenophobia. He is disarmingly charismatic in his vitriol, especially when addressing groups of young people who constitute some of his most fervent supporters. The BBC reported over the summer on Mr. Putin’s visit to a free, government subsidized summer camp run by the youth movement “Наши” (pronounced “Nashi”, literally “Ours” or “Our own”), where thousands of Russian youth come for free to swim, play sports, and learn how foreigners and Putin’s political opposition are trying to discredit, humiliate and destroy Russia. Drawing comparisons in many quarters to Hitler youth in its indoctrination of the next generation, Nashi is a frightening example of how Putin is shaping the attitudes and beliefs of Russia’s youth. Its effectiveness is clear – chess grandmaster Gary Kasparov was one of Russia’s national heroes until he took up the cause for Russian democracy as an opposition leader and presidential candidate. Now he is referred to as “America’s prostitute” in Nashi summer camp “skits”, called an American pig, assaulted at random, and most recently arrested.
Nashi is only the tip of the proverbial iceberg. Violent skinhead and neo-Nazi youth groups have been cropping up throughout Russia, often with authorities looking the other way. The irony of Russian nationalist neo-Nazis in a country whose “Great Patriotic War” was fought against Hitler might be comical were it not leading to weekly attacks on Russian Jews and foreigners, many visiting students from Africa and South Asia. In 2005, PBS Frontline estimated that 15,000 – 20,000 skinheads were active in Russia, most with affiliations to various ultra-national (and Putin-supporting) political parties. Swastikas are scrawled on school desks and spray painted on walls and playgrounds throughout Russia.
The big picture is this: In addition to rolling back democratic gains, Putin’s Russia is actively fostering a belligerent anti-west, xenophobic movement that will endure whether or not Putin remains in a position of power. From a foreign policy perspective, taking a hard line would only reinforce Putin’s assertion that western countries and the Russian opposition political parties under their influence want to return Russia to “the times of humiliation, dependence, and breakup”. Yet President Bush’s glad-handing of Putin does nothing to stop Russia’s democratic free-fall, to say nothing of its dangerous and growing nationalism. This is all happening against a backdrop of a Russian military resurgence and the increased importance of Russia as a supplier of crucially needed natural gas to Europe.
While the best option is to continue to engage Russia, the U.S. and EU should make clear that inclusion is contingent on Putin (or his successor) taking a hard stand against the xenophobia, racism, and virulent nationalism he has created for domestic political gain. In addition, the U.S., EU, and NATO should begin discussing how to deal with the Russian problem more aggressively should circumstances dictate. Special attention should be paid to expanding NATO to strategically important countries like Ukraine, ensuring Russia does not create a natural gas supply monopoly in Central Asia, and bolstering support for nascent post-Soviet democracies that now endure constant meddling by Russia. However, angering Russia over topics such as anti-ballistic missile defense systems in Poland and the Czech Republic fuel anti-western sentiment without providing any strategic gain.
The foundations now being laid in Russia are not those of a healthy, economically sound and internationally engaged country, and will persist whether or not Putin remains at Russia’s helm into the future. While the media seems mostly focused on the institutional development of Russia as Putin’s presidency wanes, it is important to understand the waxing Russian nationalism that may guide the country. A democratic Russia may be of little American interest if it is openly belligerent, expansionist, and anti-west. The U.S. and its allies must be ready to confront Russia should it begin to reap whatever is produced by the violent, imperialistic seeds it is now sowing. Sixteen years after the end of the Cold War, we are looking at another cold winter.
